Academy Award Predictions

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The Delray and Boca Newspaper is fortunate to have a movie expert on staff: Fran Marincola. We also have a wannabe expert in Jeff Perlman. These two friends often argue about their movies, but they also agree on lots of things too. Here’s a look at their picks from the upcoming Academy Awards.

Here is the list of 2018 Oscar nominations:

Best Picture:

“Call Me by Your Name”; “Darkest Hour”; “Dunkirk”; “Get Out”; “Lady Bird”; “Phantom Thread”; “The Post”; “The Shape of Water” and “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Jeff’s pick: My friend Fran is enamored of Three Billboards. I liked it too. But…I think the Academy is going to go for something more inspiring and so I’m going with the Darkest Hour.

Fran’s pick: The Shape of Water will win, how Jeff can’t see that is astounding to me.

Lead Actress:

Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”; Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”; Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”; Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird” and Meryl Streep, “The Post”

Jeff’s pick: Fran will like Frances because they have same first name. I thought she was good, but one note grumpy. Give me nuance and give me romance and so the envelope will go to Sally Hawkins.

Fran’s pick: Frances McDormand is a lock, and not because we share a first name. She was the best. Period.

Lead Actor:

Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name”; Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”; Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”; Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”; Denzel Washington and “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”

Jeff’s pick: Gary Oldman became Churchill. I don’t think Fran will disagree. But will the Academy reward the retiring Daniel Day-Lewis and why is he retiring anyway?

Fran’s pick: Finally, we agree. Gary Oldman.

Supporting Actor:

Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”; Woody Harrelson, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”; Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”; Christopher Plummer, “All the Money in the World”and Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Jeff’s pick: Again, Fran’s love for Three Billboards will lead him to pick either Woody Harrelson or Sam Rockwell. Will they split the vote and tip it to Christopher Plummer who saved his film by stepping in for Kevin Spacey? Willem Dafoe should win. Sam Rockwell will win.

Fran’s pick: Sam Rockwell will win, Jeff needs a Plummer to unclog his taste.

Supporting Actress:

Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”; Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”; Lesley Manville, “Phantom Thread”; Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird” and Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”

Jeff’s pick: I loved Lady Bird, Mudbound was hard to watch, but Allison Janney stole I, Tonya hard to do because Margot Robbie was sublime. Fran will be on thin ice here if he doesn’t agree (pun intended). There’s just no skating around that Janney is the best pic.

Fran’s pick: Allison Janney – I, Tonya.

Director:

“Dunkirk,” Christopher Nolan; “Get Out,” Jordan Peele; “Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig; “Phantom Thread,” Paul Thomas Anderson and “The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro

Jeff’s pick: Please give it to Jordan Peele. Although Greta Gerwig is also deserving. Still, it’s a rare film indeed that wins best picture but not director. Since my pick for best pic is not even nominated, I will go out on a limb and go with Mr. Peele.

Fran’s pick: Guillermo Del Toro, the movie got 14 nominations. Jeff ignores this because his knowledge of film is limited to Caddyshack and Stripes. He thought Lady Bird was about Lady Bird Johnson.